Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for WINSTON-16 in Fiji from 10 Feb 2016 12:00 UTC to 19 Feb 2016 18:00 UTC

19 Feb 2016 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WINSTON-16 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Fiji
Exposed population	230 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	296 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (20 Feb 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Fiji)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	296 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	296 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

296 km/h Current Max.

Up to 92000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Feb 2016 12:00	194	No people	No people
2	11 Feb 2016 00:00	185	No people	No people
3	11 Feb 2016 12:00	204	No people	No people	Vanuatu
4	12 Feb 2016 00:00	194	No people	No people	Vanuatu
5	12 Feb 2016 12:00	139	No people	No people	Tonga
6	13 Feb 2016 00:00	194	No people	No people	Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga
7	13 Feb 2016 12:00	176	No people	No people	Vanuatu, Tonga
8	14 Feb 2016 00:00	148	No people	No people	Vanuatu, Tonga
9	14 Feb 2016 12:00	148	No people	No people	Tonga, Vanuatu
10	15 Feb 2016 00:00	157	No people	No people	Tonga, Wallis and Futuna, Vanuatu
11	15 Feb 2016 12:00	157	No people	No people	Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu
12	16 Feb 2016 00:00	167	No people	No people	Tonga, Niue, Vanuatu
13	16 Feb 2016 06:00	176	No people	No people	Tonga, Niue, Vanuatu
14	16 Feb 2016 12:00	185	No people	No people	Tonga, Niue, Vanuatu
15	16 Feb 2016 18:00	204	No people	No people	Tonga
16	17 Feb 2016 00:00	222	No people	No people	Tonga
17	17 Feb 2016 06:00	213	No people	No people	Tonga
18	17 Feb 2016 12:00	213	No people	No people	Tonga
19	17 Feb 2016 18:00	213	No people	No people	Tonga
20	18 Feb 2016 00:00	222	No people	No people	Niue, Tonga, Vanuatu
21	18 Feb 2016 06:00	194	No people	No people	Niue, Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu
22	18 Feb 2016 12:00	204	No people	No people	Fiji
23	18 Feb 2016 18:00	213	No people	No people	Tonga, Niue, Fiji, Vanuatu
24	19 Feb 2016 00:00	213	No people	No people	Fiji
25	19 Feb 2016 06:00	241	No people	No people	Fiji
26	19 Feb 2016 12:00	241	No people	No people	Fiji
27	19 Feb 2016 18:00	296	No people	No people	Fiji

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	10 Feb 2016 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-15.3, 170.9
2	11 Feb 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-15.7, 171.1
3	11 Feb 2016 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	<1000 people	-16.7, 171.6
4	12 Feb 2016 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	17000 people	-18, 171.6	Vanuatu
5	12 Feb 2016 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	1000 people	-19.7, 171.5	Vanuatu
6	13 Feb 2016 00:00	Category 3	194	<1000 people	<1000 people	-22.2, 171.8
7	13 Feb 2016 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-24.2, 172.9
8	14 Feb 2016 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-25.3, 174.9
9	14 Feb 2016 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-25, 177.6
10	15 Feb 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1200 people	-23, 179.6
11	15 Feb 2016 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	90000 people	-20.6, -178.1	Tonga
12	16 Feb 2016 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	110000 people	-19.2, -175.5	Tonga
13	16 Feb 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	100000 people	-18.5, -174.5	Tonga
14	16 Feb 2016 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	23000 people	-17.9, -173.6	Tonga
15	16 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	15000 people	-17.5, -172.4	Niue
16	17 Feb 2016 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	1200 people	-17.5, -171.8	Niue
17	17 Feb 2016 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	1200 people	-17.5, -171.2	Niue
18	17 Feb 2016 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	1200 people	-17.5, -171	Niue
19	17 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	1200 people	-17.2, -170.8	Niue
20	18 Feb 2016 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	2300 people	-17.1, -171.1	Niue
21	18 Feb 2016 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	16000 people	-17.1, -171.6	Tonga
22	18 Feb 2016 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	16000 people	-17.1, -172.3	Tonga
23	18 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	22000 people	-17.4, -173.3	Tonga
24	19 Feb 2016 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	23000 people	-17.5, -174.6	Tonga
25	19 Feb 2016 06:00	Category 4	231	no people	13000 people	-17.5, -175.9	Fiji
26	19 Feb 2016 12:00	Category 4	231	3200 people	490000 people	-17.3, -177.5	Fiji
27	19 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 5	269	53000 people	890000 people	-17.2, -178.9	Fiji
27	20 Feb 2016 06:00	Category 5	296	35000 people	890000 people	-17, 178.8	Fiji
27	20 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 4	241	12000 people	770000 people	-17.1, 177.2	Fiji
27	21 Feb 2016 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	310000 people	-17.4, 175.8	Fiji
27	21 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	12000 people	-17.7, 175	Fiji
27	22 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	-18.9, 174.8
27	23 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-22.4, 175.9
27	24 Feb 2016 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-25.8, 176.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Fiji	Fiji
Fiji	Fiji

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Somosomo		Fiji	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Matei	TVU	21	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	2900
Saqani	AQS	unknown
Cicia	ICI	unknown
Laucala Island	LUC	unknown
Turtle Island	TTL	unknown
Koro	KXF	unknown
Bua	BVF	unknown
Vanuabalavu	VBV	unknown

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Savusavu		Fiji
Hunter Island		New Caledonia
Matthew Island		New Caledonia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Levuka, Fiji. This height is estimated for 20 Feb 2016 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (106 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 47 of 24 Feb 2016 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 Feb 2016 10:00	Levuka	Fiji	0.5
	21 Feb 2016 11:00	Bouwanga	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 11:00	Taunovo	Fiji	0.4
	20 Feb 2016 14:00	Vanuavatu	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Nausori	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 07:00	Pacific Harbour	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 09:00	Waisomo	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 09:00	Dakuimbeqa	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 15:00	Nadi	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 15:00	Namaka	Fiji	0.4
	20 Feb 2016 11:00	Liku	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 14:00	Lautoka	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 09:00	Yanutha	Fiji	0.4
	21 Feb 2016 08:00	Dromuna	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 07:00	Cautata	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Kasavu	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 04:00	Lokia	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Naimasimasi	Fiji	0.3
	20 Feb 2016 23:00	Vandravandra	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 04:00	Navuti	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 04:00	Nasaga	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Lovoni	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 08:00	Matavuralevu	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 09:00	Galoa	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 07:00	Naitionitoni	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Laucala	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Lauthala Bay	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 15:00	Somosomo	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 08:00	Lalati	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 05:00	Suva	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 18:00	Momi	Fiji	0.3
	21 Feb 2016 13:00	Soso	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 05:00	Kalokolevu	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 09:00	Korovisilou	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 12:00	Togowere	Fiji	0.2
	20 Feb 2016 09:00	Tuvutha	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 06:00	Nabouwalu	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 08:00	Namara	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 14:00	Rabulu	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 02:00	Tamavua	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 12:00	Sigatoka	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 12:00	Laselase	Fiji	0.2
	25 Feb 2016 06:00	Gadji	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 01:00	Nauouo	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 06:00	Mau	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 07:00	Vabea	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 13:00	Cuvu	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 05:00	Naruwai	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 08:00	Nawailevu	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 04:00	Navindamu	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 07:00	Naikorokoro	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 08:00	Mokoisa	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 20:00	Tavua	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 02:00	Rukuruku	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 13:00	Mbatiri	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 19:00	Solevu	Fiji	0.2
	25 Feb 2016 06:00	Kuto	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 08:00	Kavala	Fiji	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 10:00	Vunisea	Fiji	0.2
	25 Feb 2016 06:00	Vao	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Feb 2016 00:00	Vione	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Savu Sau	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Navinggiri	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 02:00	Vatutandova	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Nagumu	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 14:00	Nacula	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 14:00	Navotua	Fiji	0.1
	16 Feb 2016 07:00	Neiafu	Tonga	0.1
	20 Feb 2016 20:00	Keteira	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 01:00	Ndalomo	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 06:00	Gasele	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 06:00	Soso	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 14:00	Lomawal	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 23:00	Nalauwaki	Fiji	0.1
	20 Feb 2016 09:00	Thikombia	Fiji	0.1
	20 Feb 2016 21:00	Dalice	Fiji	0.1
	20 Feb 2016 22:00	Sawaieke	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 00:00	Koroinasolo	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 00:00	Naingani	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 17:00	Tavua	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 07:00	Navua	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 07:00	Kaduvu	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 12:00	Sisili	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 10:00	Ndenimanu	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 16:00	Tamusua	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 00:00	Makongai	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 12:00	Ucunivanua	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 11:00	Korovou	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 06:00	Nukuvou	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 11:00	Korolevu	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 11:00	Talaulia	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 11:00	Lodoni	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 10:00	Nayavutoka	Fiji	0.1
	20 Feb 2016 19:00	Rave-rave	Fiji	0.1
	20 Feb 2016 08:00	Namuka	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 01:00	Levuka	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 02:00	Yangganga	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 07:00	Nasilai	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 09:00	Mburelevu	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 12:00	Vatukarasa	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 10:00	Nasau	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 10:00	Nalotu	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 15:00	Nailanga	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 15:00	Sorokoba	Fiji	0.1
	20 Feb 2016 20:00	Lawaki	Fiji	0.1
	21 Feb 2016 03:00	Nanduri	Fiji	0.1